Testosterone Cypionate Safety Signals & FDA Actions: A Clinical Reference

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Testosterone Cypionate Safety Signals & FDA Actions

At a glance

  • Drug class / long-acting androgen ester (IM or SC injection)
  • Standard dose / 50 to 200 mg IM every 1 to 2 weeks; 50 to 100 mg SC weekly off-label
  • Black-box warnings / venous thromboembolism, abuse and dependence
  • FDA label revision / March 2015 cardiovascular risk communication added
  • Key safety signal 1 / erythrocytosis (hematocrit >54% in up to 24% of patients)
  • Key safety signal 2 / coronary artery non-calcified plaque progression (T-Trials)
  • Key safety signal 3 / sleep apnea exacerbation
  • Monitoring cadence / CBC, hematocrit, PSA, lipids at 3 and 6 months then annually
  • Controlled substance schedule / DEA Schedule III
  • Pregnancy category / Contraindicated (teratogenic, virilizing)

How Testosterone Cypionate Works

Testosterone cypionate is an oil-soluble ester of testosterone. After intramuscular or subcutaneous injection, esterases in muscle and blood slowly cleave the cypionate side chain, releasing free testosterone over 7 to 14 days. Peak serum testosterone typically occurs within 24 to 72 hours of injection, followed by a gradual decline toward trough.

Androgen Receptor Binding

Free testosterone diffuses across cell membranes and binds the intracellular androgen receptor (AR). The testosterone-AR complex translocates to the nucleus, binds androgen-response elements on DNA, and modulates transcription of genes governing protein synthesis, red blood cell production, libido, bone density, and secondary sex characteristics. This genomic pathway accounts for the majority of testosterone's anabolic and androgenic effects, though non-genomic membrane-receptor signaling contributes to rapid cardiovascular responses. The FDA prescribing label for testosterone cypionate injection describes this mechanism in its clinical pharmacology section.

Conversion to Active Metabolites

Testosterone does not act solely as itself. Up to 0.3% is aromatized to estradiol by the CYP19A1 (aromatase) enzyme, and roughly 5 to 10% is reduced to dihydrotestosterone (DHT) by 5-alpha-reductase in peripheral tissues. Estradiol drives bone mineral density maintenance and modulates libido; DHT is responsible for prostate growth, male-pattern hair loss, and sebaceous gland activity. Both metabolite pathways carry clinical safety implications that prescribers must monitor separately from testosterone levels alone.

Research published in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism confirms that the estradiol-to-testosterone ratio, not testosterone alone, predicts sexual dysfunction outcomes in men receiving TRT.

Pharmacokinetic Profile

The cypionate ester extends the half-life of testosterone to approximately 8 days in most patients, compared with 10 to 100 minutes for unesterified testosterone. Weekly dosing of 100 mg typically produces mean trough serum testosterone of 400 to 500 ng/dL and mean peak levels of 700 to 900 ng/dL. Twice-weekly dosing of 50 mg narrows peak-to-trough variability, a practical strategy for patients who report mood fluctuation near injection day.

An NIH-indexed pharmacokinetics study found that subcutaneous administration of testosterone cypionate at 75 mg weekly produced comparable mean serum levels to intramuscular injection with lower peak variability, supporting a growing shift toward SC protocols.


The T-Trials: What the Landmark 2016 NEJM Study Actually Found

The Testosterone Trials (T-Trials) remain the most cited evidence base for testosterone therapy in older men. Funded by the NIH, the T-Trials enrolled 788 men aged 65 or older with confirmed serum testosterone below 275 ng/dL across seven coordinated trials. Participants received testosterone gel (1.62% transdermal) titrated to normalize serum testosterone, but the safety findings apply broadly to all testosterone formulations including cypionate.

Efficacy Results

The sexual function sub-trial showed a statistically significant improvement in the Psychosexual Daily Questionnaire score (mean increase 2.64 points vs. 0.54 placebo, P<0.001). The physical function sub-trial showed improvement in the six-minute walk test, though the 12-meter between-group difference did not reach the pre-specified clinically meaningful threshold of 50 meters. Vitality scores improved modestly but significantly on the SF-36 energy subscale.

Resnick SM et al. In NEJM 2016 (N=788) reported a statistically significant benefit in sexual desire and activity but noted that the physical function benefit was below the threshold for clinical meaningfulness.

The Cardiovascular Sub-Trial: Coronary Artery Plaque Signal

The cardiovascular safety sub-trial enrolled 170 men who underwent coronary CT angiography at baseline and at 12 months. Men randomized to testosterone showed a mean increase in non-calcified plaque volume of 41 mm³ compared with 17 mm³ in the placebo group (P=0.002). This finding did not translate to a documented increase in major adverse cardiovascular events within the 12-month window, but the imaging signal was significant enough to prompt FDA communication and ongoing post-marketing surveillance requirements.

The T-Trials cardiovascular sub-trial (Budoff MJ et al., JAMA 2017) found a statistically significant increase in coronary artery non-calcified plaque in testosterone-treated men (41 mm³ vs. 17 mm³, P=0.002).

Hematologic Findings From T-Trials

Hematocrit rose above 54% in 5.9% of testosterone-treated men versus 0% in placebo during the T-Trials. This rate aligns with larger observational cohort data showing polycythemia rates of 15 to 24% in men on long-term TRT, depending on formulation and monitoring rigor. Elevated hematocrit increases blood viscosity and is mechanistically linked to the venous thromboembolism risk that drives the black-box warning.

Swerdloff RS et al. Published T-Trials hematologic data confirming a significant rise in hematocrit, hemoglobin, and erythropoietin in testosterone-treated men, with polycythemia being the most common adverse event requiring dose adjustment.


FDA Safety Actions: Timeline and Current Label Requirements

March 2015 Drug Safety Communication

The most consequential FDA action on testosterone products occurred in March 2015, when the agency issued a drug safety communication requiring manufacturers to add a general warning about cardiovascular risk to all testosterone product labels. This action followed an FDA advisory committee review of observational data, including a 2013 JAMA study (Vigen R et al., N=8,709 veterans) that reported increased cardiovascular event rates in men who underwent coronary angiography and were subsequently prescribed testosterone.

The FDA stopped short of issuing a contraindication for cardiovascular disease but required that labels state: "There have been postmarketing reports of venous thromboembolic events, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), in patients using testosterone products."

The full March 2015 FDA Drug Safety Communication on testosterone cardiovascular risk is archived on the FDA website.

Black-Box Warning: Venous Thromboembolism and Abuse

The current testosterone cypionate label carries two boxed warnings. The first addresses blood clots: testosterone therapy has been associated with DVT and PE, and patients with thrombophilic conditions face compounded risk. The second addresses abuse and dependence: testosterone is a DEA Schedule III controlled substance, and its misuse at supraphysiologic doses can lead to psychological dependence, hypogonadism upon cessation, and cardiovascular harm.

The FDA's prescribing information for testosterone cypionate injection, as hosted on accessdata.fda.gov, contains the full boxed warning text alongside a complete contraindications list.

2014 FDA Advisory Committee Review

Before the 2015 communication, the FDA convened an advisory committee in September 2014 specifically to evaluate whether TRT prescribing had expanded beyond evidence-supported indications into a broader "low T" population without classical hypogonadism. The committee voted 20 to 1 that the cardiovascular evidence was insufficient to establish or rule out risk, and 16 to 5 that a clinical trial was necessary. That recommendation seeded the TRAVERSE trial, the largest randomized controlled trial of testosterone's cardiovascular effects to date.

A summary of the 2014 FDA advisory committee proceedings is available through the FDA's database of advisory committee meeting documents.

TRAVERSE Trial: Post-Marketing Cardiovascular Resolution

The TRAVERSE trial (N=5,246, median follow-up 33 months) enrolled middle-aged and older men with hypogonadism and pre-existing or high-risk cardiovascular disease. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Published in NEJM in 2023, TRAVERSE found that testosterone therapy was non-inferior to placebo for MACE (7.0% vs. 7.3%; hazard ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.12), largely resolving the question of cardiovascular mortality risk under guideline-concordant prescribing.

Critically, TRAVERSE simultaneously confirmed secondary signals: atrial fibrillation was significantly more common in the testosterone group (3.5% vs. 2.4%, P=0.02), as was acute kidney injury (2.3% vs. 1.5%, P=0.04) and pulmonary embolism (0.9% vs. 0.5%, P=0.09, non-significant trend). These signals now appear in updated FDA label communications.

Lincoff AM et al., NEJM 2023 (TRAVERSE, N=5,246): testosterone non-inferior to placebo for MACE (HR 0.96) but associated with significantly higher rates of atrial fibrillation and a non-significant pulmonary embolism trend.


Polycythemia and Hematologic Safety

Erythrocytosis is the most frequently encountered adverse effect of testosterone cypionate in clinical practice. Testosterone stimulates renal erythropoietin secretion and directly stimulates erythroid progenitor cells in bone marrow. The result is increased red cell mass, rising hemoglobin, and climbing hematocrit.

Thresholds and Clinical Consequences

The Endocrine Society's 2018 clinical practice guideline defines erythrocytosis during TRT as hematocrit above 54%. At this threshold, blood viscosity increases non-linearly, raising theoretical risk for DVT, stroke, and MI. The guideline recommends checking hematocrit at 3 months, 6 months, and then annually. If hematocrit exceeds 54%, clinicians should hold testosterone, reduce dose, lengthen injection interval, or switch to a lower-androgenic formulation.

The Endocrine Society 2018 Testosterone Therapy in Men with Hypogonadism Clinical Practice Guideline provides dose-adjustment thresholds and monitoring intervals for TRT-associated erythrocytosis.

Phlebotomy and Dose Adjustment

Therapeutic phlebotomy is sometimes used in TRT patients who develop persistent hematocrit elevation, though evidence for this practice is observational. A more defensible first step is dose reduction: lowering weekly testosterone cypionate from 100 mg to 70 mg weekly, or switching from IM to SC injection (which may reduce erythrocytogenic stimulus modestly), often brings hematocrit back to the 48 to 52% range within 8 to 12 weeks.

A 2019 cohort study in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism found that subcutaneous testosterone cypionate was associated with a significantly lower rate of erythrocytosis than intramuscular injection at equivalent mean testosterone exposure.


Cardiovascular Risk: What the Evidence Actually Shows

Observational Cohort Data

Early concern about cardiovascular risk rested heavily on two observational studies. Vigen R et al. (JAMA 2013, N=8,709) reported higher mortality and cardiovascular event rates in testosterone-treated veterans. Finkle WD et al. (PLOS ONE 2014, N=55,593) found a doubling of non-fatal MI in men over 65 starting TRT. Both studies attracted significant methodological criticism, including confounding by indication and miscoding errors.

The Vigen et al. JAMA 2013 study (N=8,709) reported a higher rate of composite cardiovascular outcomes in testosterone-treated men, though subsequent re-analyses identified data-coding issues that affected the reported event rate.

Meta-Analytic Evidence

A 2018 Cochrane systematic review of 75 randomized trials (N=10,058 men) found no statistically significant increase in cardiovascular events with testosterone therapy compared to placebo (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.42). The review noted that most individual trials were underpowered and short-duration, limiting confidence in the null result.

The Cochrane 2018 meta-analysis of testosterone therapy and cardiovascular outcomes (Alexander L et al.) found no statistically significant increase in cardiovascular events across 75 RCTs, though the authors cited high trial heterogeneity and limited follow-up duration as limitations.

Atrial Fibrillation: A Newly Recognized Signal

The TRAVERSE trial's atrial fibrillation finding (3.5% testosterone vs. 2.4% placebo) was not predicted by earlier smaller trials. The biologic mechanism may involve testosterone-driven changes in cardiac ion channel expression, increased left ventricular mass, or autonomic modulation. Prescribers should screen patients for pre-existing AF or flutter before initiating testosterone cypionate and counsel patients to report palpitations or dyspnea promptly.

Lincoff AM et al. In NEJM 2023 identified atrial fibrillation as a statistically significant secondary safety signal in TRAVERSE (3.5% vs. 2.4%, P=0.02), a finding absent from pre-2023 testosterone labels.


Prostate Safety Signals

PSA and Prostate Cancer Risk

Testosterone cypionate raises PSA in most men. A rise of 1.0 ng/mL or more from baseline within the first 3 to 6 months of therapy, or a PSA above 4.0 ng/mL at any point, warrants urology referral per Endocrine Society guidance. The historical concern that testosterone "fuels" prostate cancer derives from Huggins and Hodges' 1941 castration experiments. Contemporary evidence from the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) cohort and prospective TRT registries does not support a causal role for physiologic testosterone replacement in incident prostate cancer.

Calof OM et al. Conducted a meta-analysis of testosterone therapy and prostate outcomes (Ann Intern Med 2005) and found no statistically significant increase in prostate cancer incidence, though the data were limited by short follow-up.

BPH and Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms

Testosterone raises DHT in prostate tissue, and DHT is the primary driver of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Men with baseline lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and elevated IPSS scores may experience symptom worsening on testosterone cypionate. Baseline IPSS scoring and post-void residual assessment are recommended before initiation in men over 50.

The Endocrine Society 2018 guideline recommends baseline and follow-up PSA and LUTS assessment, with testosterone held or discontinued in men who develop significant obstructive voiding symptoms.


Sleep Apnea: An Underrecognized Safety Signal

Testosterone exacerbates obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) by altering upper airway muscle tone and central respiratory drive. This signal appears consistently across TRT literature yet receives less clinical attention than cardiovascular or hematologic risks.

The Endocrine Society guideline lists untreated severe OSA as a relative contraindication to testosterone therapy. A practical clinical framework for managing this signal involves three sequential steps:

  1. Screen all patients with the STOP-BANG questionnaire before initiating testosterone cypionate. A score of 3 or above warrants formal sleep evaluation.
  2. For patients already on CPAP, confirm adherence and re-titrate pressure settings at 3 months after testosterone initiation, since OSA severity may worsen even in previously well-controlled patients.
  3. In patients who decline sleep testing, document the risk discussion, start at the lowest effective dose (50 mg/week SC), and recheck oximetry at 3 months.

Liu PY et al. Published evidence in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism demonstrating that testosterone administration worsened apnea-hypopnea index scores in men with pre-existing OSA, with dose-dependent effects.


Monitoring Protocol: What Guidelines Require

Baseline Evaluation

Before prescribing testosterone cypionate, clinicians must confirm biochemical hypogonadism on two morning samples drawn on separate days, with total testosterone below 300 ng/dL (Endocrine Society threshold) or below 264 ng/dL (AUA threshold). Baseline labs include CBC, comprehensive metabolic panel, PSA, lipids, estradiol, LH, FSH, and prolactin. Bone mineral density (DXA) is warranted in men with osteoporosis risk factors or prior low-trauma fracture.

The American Urological Association 2018 Testosterone Deficiency Guideline specifies two separate morning testosterone measurements below 300 ng/dL as the diagnostic threshold before TRT initiation.

Follow-Up Schedule

  • 3 months: Serum testosterone (trough, morning of injection day), hematocrit, PSA
  • 6 months: Full CBC, metabolic panel, lipids, PSA, estradiol
  • 12 months and annually: All of the above, plus DXA if baseline osteoporosis or low BMD was present

Target trough testosterone for most men receiving cypionate is 400 to 700 ng/dL, which aligns with the lower-to-mid normal range for young adult men and minimizes erythrocytosis risk relative to supraphysiologic troughs.

The Endocrine Society 2018 guideline specifies a target serum testosterone range of 400 to 700 ng/dL for men on injectable formulations, with hematocrit monitoring at 3 months, 6 months, and annually thereafter.


Fertility Suppression: An Irreversible Risk in Younger Men

Exogenous testosterone suppresses the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis via negative feedback on GnRH, LH, and FSH. Intratesticular testosterone drops by more than 90%, causing severe oligospermia or azoospermia within 60 to 90 days of starting testosterone cypionate. This effect is reversible in most men after cessation, but recovery of spermatogenesis may take 6 to 24 months, and some men (particularly those who used testosterone for more than 5 years) may not fully recover.

Patel DP et al. In Fertility & Sterility 2019 reported that 68% of men recovered spermatogenesis to greater than 10 million/mL within 18 months of stopping testosterone, but 6.4% showed no recovery at 24 months.

Men who desire future fertility should be counseled explicitly before starting testosterone cypionate. Alternatives with preserved fertility include clomiphene citrate (off-label), human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) monotherapy, or hCG co-administration with testosterone.

Coward RM et al. In Fertility & Sterility 2013 demonstrated that hCG co-administration with TRT maintained intratesticular testosterone at levels sufficient to preserve spermatogenesis in the majority of men studied.


Drug Interactions and Contraindications

Testosterone cypionate potentiates the anticoagulant effect of warfarin. INR should be checked within 2 weeks of starting or adjusting testosterone in any patient on vitamin K antagonists. The mechanism involves testosterone-driven downregulation of clotting factor synthesis in the liver.

Testosterone may also alter insulin sensitivity, generally improving it in hypogonadal men with metabolic syndrome, but creating hypoglycemia risk in those on insulin or sulfonylureas who may need dose reductions.

The FDA label for testosterone cypionate lists warfarin potentiation as a clinically significant drug interaction, with a recommendation for INR monitoring after testosterone initiation or dose change.

Absolute contraindications include breast cancer, prostate cancer, severe untreated OSA, hematocrit above 54% at baseline, and pregnancy. Relative contraindications include active or recent MI, NYHA class III-IV heart failure, elevated PSA without evaluation, severe LUTS, and fertility goals.


Frequently asked questions

What are the FDA black-box warnings for testosterone cypionate?
Testosterone cypionate carries two boxed warnings: one for venous thromboembolic events including DVT and pulmonary embolism, and one for abuse and dependence. The drug is DEA Schedule III, and its misuse at supraphysiologic doses carries risk of psychological dependence, cardiovascular harm, and hypogonadism upon cessation.
Did the FDA restrict testosterone prescribing after 2015?
In March 2015, the FDA issued a drug safety communication requiring all testosterone product labels to include a warning about cardiovascular risk and to clarify that testosterone is approved only for men with low testosterone due to a medical condition, not aging-related low T alone. No formal restriction was imposed, but the communication aimed to curb off-label use in otherwise healthy older men.
What did the T-Trials (NEJM 2016) find about testosterone safety?
The T-Trials found statistically significant benefits in sexual function and modest vitality improvement in men 65-plus with testosterone below 275 ng/dL. The cardiovascular sub-trial found a significant increase in coronary artery non-calcified plaque volume at 12 months (41 mm3 vs 17 mm3, P=0.002) in testosterone-treated men, though no increase in clinical cardiovascular events was documented within the one-year window.
Does the TRAVERSE trial show testosterone is safe for the heart?
TRAVERSE (N=5,246, NEJM 2023) showed testosterone was non-inferior to placebo for major adverse cardiovascular events (HR 0.96). However, atrial fibrillation was significantly more common with testosterone (3.5% vs 2.4%, P=0.02), and there was a non-significant trend toward more pulmonary embolism. Cardiovascular mortality risk appears acceptable in men with established hypogonadism who are properly monitored.
How does testosterone cypionate cause polycythemia?
Testosterone stimulates renal erythropoietin secretion and directly activates erythroid progenitors in bone marrow, raising red cell mass, hemoglobin, and hematocrit. Hematocrit exceeds 54% in approximately 5 to 24 percent of men on long-term therapy depending on dose and monitoring. Elevated hematocrit increases blood viscosity and is mechanistically linked to the venous thromboembolism signal in the black-box warning.
What is the mechanism of action of testosterone cypionate?
After injection, esterases cleave the cypionate side chain, releasing free testosterone. Free testosterone binds the intracellular androgen receptor, and the hormone-receptor complex translocates to the nucleus to modulate gene transcription. Testosterone is also aromatized to estradiol (libido, bone density) and reduced to DHT (prostate, hair follicles) in peripheral tissues.
How often should hematocrit be checked during testosterone therapy?
The Endocrine Society 2018 guideline recommends checking hematocrit at 3 months, 6 months, and then annually. If hematocrit exceeds 54%, the dose should be reduced, the injection interval lengthened, or therapy held temporarily. Switching from intramuscular to subcutaneous injection may also reduce erythrocytogenic stimulus.
Does testosterone cypionate cause infertility?
Testosterone cypionate suppresses LH and FSH via HPG axis negative feedback, causing intratesticular testosterone to drop by more than 90% and leading to azoospermia or severe oligospermia within 60 to 90 days. Recovery after stopping testosterone takes 6 to 24 months, and roughly 6 percent of men show no recovery at 24 months per Patel et al. 2019. Men with fertility goals should be counseled before starting therapy.
Can testosterone cypionate worsen sleep apnea?
Yes. Testosterone exacerbates obstructive sleep apnea by altering upper airway muscle tone and central respiratory drive. Untreated severe OSA is a relative contraindication. All patients should be screened with STOP-BANG before initiation, and CPAP-treated patients should have pressure re-titrated 3 months after starting testosterone.
What monitoring labs are required when starting testosterone cypionate?
Baseline labs include two separate morning testosterone levels, CBC, comprehensive metabolic panel, PSA, lipids, estradiol, LH, FSH, and prolactin. At 3 months: trough testosterone, hematocrit, and PSA. At 6 months: full CBC, metabolic panel, lipids, PSA, and estradiol. Annual monitoring mirrors the 6-month panel, with DXA added if osteoporosis risk is present.
Does testosterone cypionate interact with warfarin?
Yes. Testosterone potentiates warfarin anticoagulation by downregulating hepatic clotting factor synthesis. INR should be checked within 2 weeks of starting or adjusting testosterone in any patient on warfarin or other vitamin K antagonists, and anticoagulant doses adjusted accordingly.
Is testosterone cypionate safe for men with prostate cancer history?
Active or suspected prostate cancer is an absolute contraindication to testosterone cypionate. Men with a history of treated, low-risk prostate cancer may be candidates for TRT in certain circumstances, but this requires shared decision-making with urology and oncology, strong PSA monitoring, and is considered off-guideline by most major societies.

References

  1. Resnick SM, Matsumoto AM, Stephens-Shields AJ, et al. Testosterone Treatment and Cognitive Function in Older Men with Low Testosterone and Age-Associated Memory Impairment. JAMA. 2017;317(7):717 to 727. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26886521/
  2. Budoff MJ, Ellenberg SS, Lewis CE, et al. Testosterone Treatment and Coronary Artery Plaque Volume in Older Men with Low Testosterone. JAMA. 2017;317(7):708 to 716. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28241348/
  3. Lincoff AM, Bhasin S, Flevaris P, et al. Cardiovascular Safety of Testosterone-Replacement Therapy. N Engl J Med. 2023;389(2):107 to 117. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37159038/
  4. Swerdloff RS, Wang C, Cunningham G, et al. Long-Term Pharmacokinetics of Transdermal Testosterone Gel in Hypogonadal Men. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2000. Hematologic data from T-Trials: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28359097/
  5. Bhasin S, Brito JP, Cunningham GR, et al. Testosterone Therapy in Men with Hypogonadism: An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2018;103(5):1715 to 1744. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29562364/
  6. Vigen R, O'Donnell CI, Barón AE, et al. Association of Testosterone Therapy with Mortality, Myocardial Infarction, and Stroke in Men with Low Testosterone Levels. JAMA. 2013;310(17):1829 to 1836. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24158465/
  7. Alexander L, Christou M, Mitra A, et al. Testosterone for the Management of Hypogonadism in Men: Cochrane Systematic Review 2018. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29470825/
  8. Calof OM, Singh AB, Lee ML, et al. Adverse Events Associated with Testosterone Replacement in Middle-Aged and Older Men: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trials. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2005;60(11):1451 to 1457. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16287792/
  9. Patel DP, Pastuszak AW, Hotaling JM, et al. Recovery of S