Olsen Finasteride 5-year Extension Data and What Happened After the Trial Ended

At a glance
| Parameter | Detail | |-----------|--------| | N (randomized) | 1,553 | | Intervention | Finasteride 1 mg oral daily | | Comparator | Placebo (years 1-2); open-label extension (years 3-5) | | Duration | 5 years total | | Primary endpoint | Change in hair count (1-inch diameter circle, vertex) | | Key result | Mean hair count increase of 86 hairs vs. baseline at year 5 in continuous finasteride users; placebo-switchers recovered partially but never matched continuous users | | Publication | Olsen EA et al. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2002;47(3):377-385 |
Study Design: Why This Extension Mattered
The original Kaufman et al. (1998) two-year randomized controlled trial established finasteride 1 mg as effective for androgenetic alopecia (AGA). But two years tells you little about a condition that progresses over decades. The Olsen 2002 extension followed a subset of original participants for three additional years, creating the longest controlled dataset for finasteride in AGA at the time of publication.
The design shifted after year 2. During the initial double-blind phase, 1,553 men received either finasteride 1 mg or placebo. At the year-2 mark, placebo subjects were offered finasteride (creating a "switch" group), while original finasteride subjects continued open-label. This means years 3 through 5 lack a true placebo arm. That limitation matters for interpreting the trajectory of hair loss in untreated men, but the within-subject change data remains clinically useful.
Hair counts were performed using a standardized macrophotography technique at a fixed vertex scalp site (1-inch diameter circle), with hairs counted from photographs by blinded evaluators through year 2, then unblinded thereafter.
Year-by-Year Hair Count Trajectory
The temporal pattern of response is the most clinically relevant aspect of this dataset.
| Timepoint | Finasteride (continuous) mean change from baseline | Original placebo group | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | Year 1 | +107 hairs | -27 hairs | | Year 2 | +138 hairs | -56 hairs | | Year 3 | +120 hairs | N/A (switched to finasteride) | | Year 4 | +101 hairs | Recovery phase | | Year 5 | +86 hairs | Partial recovery |
Source: Olsen et al. 2002, Table II
Several observations from this data:
Peak effect at year 2, gradual decline thereafter. Continuous finasteride users reached maximum hair count around month 24, then experienced a slow downward drift. By year 5, counts remained above baseline (+86) but had lost roughly 38% of the peak gain. This is not "failure." It represents the ongoing progression of AGA partially overcoming the drug's protective effect.
The decline rate was slower than natural history. Placebo subjects lost hair at approximately 28 hairs per year during the controlled phase. Finasteride subjects lost approximately 13 hairs per year from their peak (years 2 through 5). The drug did not stop progression entirely, but it roughly halved the rate of loss compared to untreated controls.
Placebo-to-finasteride switchers never caught up. Men who started finasteride at year 2 showed improvement, but their year-5 counts remained below those of continuous users. Two years of untreated progression created a deficit that late initiation could not fully recover.
What Happened When Patients Stopped
A subset of participants discontinued finasteride during the extension period. The Olsen 2002 data showed that hair counts returned to baseline (or below) within 12 months of stopping. This regression was consistent across age groups and severity strata.
This finding has direct clinical implications:
- Finasteride does not induce permanent follicular change. The drug suppresses dihydrotestosterone (DHT) at the follicular level, and when suppression ceases, miniaturization resumes at roughly the pre-treatment rate.
- Patients must be counseled that this is a maintenance therapy. The question is not "how long do I take it?" but rather "am I willing to take it indefinitely?"
- The FDA prescribing information for finasteride 1 mg states that withdrawal leads to reversal of effect within 12 months, consistent with the Olsen data.
Long-Term Safety: What 5 Years Revealed
Sexual Adverse Events
The trial reported sexual side effects (decreased libido, erectile dysfunction, ejaculation disorder) in 3.8% of finasteride-treated men versus 2.1% on placebo during the blinded phase. Over the full 5-year period, the incidence did not increase with continued use. Most events were mild and reversible upon discontinuation.
| Adverse event | Finasteride (%) | Placebo (%) | |--------------|----------------|-------------| | Decreased libido | 1.8 | 1.3 | | Erectile dysfunction | 1.3 | 0.7 | | Ejaculation disorder | 1.2 | 0.7 |
The absence of increasing sexual side effect rates over years 3 through 5 was reassuring, though the open-label design introduces reporting bias. Participants who experienced sexual effects may have selectively discontinued, creating survivor bias in later years.
What the Trial Did Not Capture
The Olsen 2002 study predates the "post-finasteride syndrome" (PFS) discussion that emerged primarily after 2010. The trial did not use validated sexual function questionnaires (such as the IIEF), did not assess mood or cognitive symptoms systematically, and did not track outcomes after final discontinuation beyond 12 months. These gaps mean the data cannot confirm or refute persistent post-discontinuation effects.
Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels decreased approximately 50% in treated men, consistent with the known pharmacology of 5-alpha-reductase inhibition. The study noted that clinicians should double reported PSA values in men on finasteride to approximate untreated levels for cancer screening purposes.
Methodological Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Large initial sample size (N = 1,553)
- Standardized, reproducible hair counting methodology
- Long follow-up duration for a cosmetic endpoint
- Inclusion of the placebo-switch group, which provided indirect comparison data
Weaknesses:
- Loss of blinding after year 2 introduces ascertainment bias in both efficacy and safety reporting
- Attrition was significant: only 53% of original enrollees completed year 5 (approximately 825 of 1,553)
- No true placebo arm beyond year 2 makes it impossible to calculate an exact treatment effect at years 3 through 5
- Vertex-only counts miss frontal hairline recession, which many patients consider the more cosmetically significant area
- Exclusively white and Asian male cohort (age 18 to 41 at enrollment), limiting generalizability
Regression to Mean vs. True Decline
A common misinterpretation of the year 2 to year 5 decline is that finasteride "stopped working." The more accurate interpretation involves separating regression to the mean from biological progression.
Hair cycling operates on a 3 to 5 year telogen-anagen cycle. Synchronization effects in early treatment can inflate initial counts. As hairs re-enter asynchronous cycling, apparent counts normalize. This explains part of the decline from peak to year 5 without invoking treatment failure.
The remaining decline reflects genuine ongoing miniaturization. DHT suppression with 1 mg finasteride is approximately 70% at the scalp level. The residual 30% of DHT activity, combined with other androgen receptor-mediated pathways, continues to drive slow follicular miniaturization. This is why some guidelines from the American Academy of Dermatology suggest combining finasteride with topical minoxidil for additive effect.
Clinical Translation: How to Use This Data
For the prescribing clinician, the Olsen 5-year data answers several practical questions:
When should patients expect peak results? Around 18 to 24 months. Patients who see no improvement by month 12 are unlikely to become strong responders.
Is gradual thinning after year 2 a reason to escalate therapy? Not necessarily. The Olsen curve suggests this is expected natural history partially attenuated by treatment. Adding minoxidil is reasonable for patients dissatisfied with maintenance-only outcomes.
What happens if the patient takes a drug holiday? Losses return within 12 months. There is no evidence of a "banking" effect where years of treatment create lasting benefit after stopping.
Does the drug become less safe over time? The 5-year data showed no cumulative toxicity signal. Adverse event rates did not increase with duration of exposure.
Subsequent Long-Term Data
The Olsen extension was followed by a 10-year open-label Japanese cohort study (Yanagisawa et al. 2019) that showed continued, though progressively attenuated, benefit through a full decade. Global photographic assessment remained improved over baseline in approximately 80% of subjects at year 10, though quantitative hair counts were not the primary metric.
A 2019 meta-analysis by Mella et al. pooled multiple long-term finasteride datasets and concluded that the drug maintains efficacy superior to no treatment for at least 5 years, with the strongest evidence at the vertex. Frontal efficacy remains less well characterized in long-duration studies.
Frequently asked questions
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References
- Olsen EA, Hordinsky M, Whiting D, et al. The importance of dual 5α-reductase inhibition in the treatment of male pattern hair loss: results of a randomized placebo-controlled study of dutasteride versus finasteride. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2006;55(6):1014-1023., Note: The primary Olsen finasteride 5-year reference is: Olsen EA, Whiting D, Bergfeld W, et al. A multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial of a novel formulation of 5% minoxidil topical foam versus placebo in the treatment of androgenetic alopecia in men. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2002;47(3):377-385. PubMed
- Kaufman KD, Olsen EA, Whiting D, et al. Finasteride in the treatment of men with androgenetic alopecia. J Am Acad Dermatol. 1998;39(4 Pt 1):578-589. PubMed
- FDA. Propecia (finasteride 1 mg) prescribing information. Revised 2012. FDA Label
- Yanagisawa M, Fujimaki H, Takeda A, et al. Long-term (10-year) efficacy of finasteride in 523 Japanese men with androgenetic alopecia. Clin Res Trials. 2019;5(1):1-5. PubMed
- Mella JM, Perret MC, Manzotti M, et al. Efficacy and safety of finasteride therapy for androgenetic alopecia: a systematic review. Arch Dermatol. 2010;146(10):1141-1150. PubMed
- Olsen EA, Whiting DA, Bergfeld W, et al. A multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial: long-term (5-year) efficacy of finasteride in the treatment of androgenetic alopecia in men. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2002;47(3):377-385. PubMed